Q3 Market Review ~ Who am I? Why am I here?
October 12, 2007
Welcome to the Kalorama Wealth Strategies Quarterly Market
Review. These quarterly briefs update the performance of the
financial markets and provide commentary on topics affecting
investments.
Stock and bond markets were whipsawed during the third
quarter. At the outset, stocks continued on the upward
trajectory started during the first half of the year, with
the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting an all-time high on
July 19th at a smidgen above 14,000. But by the end of the
month, stocks began to swoon due to concerns about a weak
housing market and tight corporate credit. This lead to a
massive re-pricing of risk in the residential mortgage and
corporate credit markets, widening bond spreads and lowering
fixed-income prices.
To address the credit-market distress, in August the
Federal Reserve added liquidity to the system by engaging in
open-market operations and, in an unusual move, cutting only
the Discount rate by ½%. The Discount rate is the rate
charged member banks when they borrow directly from the Fed,
whereas the more widely-publicized Fed Funds rate is the
overnight rate banks charge each other. On September 19th,
the Fed lowered both the Fed Funds and Discount rates by ½%
to 4.75% and 5.25%, respectively.
By quarter end it was "much ado about nothing" for
stocks, as most market barometers went on to post advances.
Meanwhile, the credit-market turmoil spurred a monsoon
flight-to-safety which sent the yield on the 10-year
Treasury Note below 4.40%. The 10-year Note was down 41
basis points for the quarter to close at 4.62% (the yield as
of October 11th was 4.64%).
Below are rates of return for selected market indices for
the third quarter of 2007, year-to-date 2007, and the three,
five, and 10-year averages as of December 31, 2006.
Who am I? Why am I here? (Do you have an Investment
Philosophy?)
There's more to these words than the mere utterances of
philosophy professor and vice-presidential nominee James
Stockdale. These rhetorical questions posed by a relative
unknown as his opening remarks in a 1992 debate were left
unanswered, so the highly-decorated Navy officer never had
the opportunity to explain how his values and beliefs guided
him to develop his political positions. Remarkably, he was
later quoted to say: "I never had a single conversation
about politics with Ross Perot in my life; still haven't."
So much for Perot's approach to portfolio selection...
Do you have an investment philosophy for your portfolio?
Has your financial advisor explained his/her investment
philosophy? Does your financial advisor even have an
investment philosophy? First, what is an investment
philosophy? It is a set of guiding principles which provide
a framework for how an investment portfolio is managed. This
includes decisions about how the investments will be
selected, as well as how the portfolio will be constructed
and managed. All of the investments in your portfolio should
be able to answer the questions 'Who am I? Why am I here?'.
In April, we wrote about Portfolio Spring-Cleaning (See
Portfolio Spring-Cleaning Revisited at
www.kaloramawealth.com/news.html) to provide a
framework for "what" should be done to organize and optimize
the performance of your portfolio to achieve your goals. We
followed up in July with the "how" of Portfolio
Spring-Cleaning by providing the steps in the Investment
Management Process (See Commencing Countdown, Engines On! at
www.kaloramawealth.com/news.html). This article
discusses the "why" of Portfolio Spring-Cleaning by
outlining an investment philosophy.
As an investor, you should not only know in which
investments your money is invested, but more importantly,
"why" the investments were chosen. An investment philosophy
should comprise investment strategies based upon sound
financial and economic principles which emphasize low costs
and tax efficiency. Investments should be selected based
upon quantitative and qualitative analysis, and portfolios
should be constructed using a process to maximize after-tax
total return within an investor's risk tolerance and time
horizon.
Kalorama Wealth Strategies embraces nine investment
philosophy principles:
1. Transparency
Transparency in the financial markets means the full,
accurate, and timely disclosure of information which
provides the investor knowledge about a company or
investment. Clear and easily understood processes provide
clients access to information so that knowledgeable
decisions can be made.
2. Fee-Only Compensation, No Commissions
A fee-only compensation structure aligns the
interests of the advisor and the client. Both commission-
and fee-based (fee and commission) planners have an
incentive to invest client assets in products which pay the
highest commissions. A fee-only structure avoids the
significant, inherent conflicts of interest which may arise
when an advisor is in a position to gain financially from
the purchase of any investment or insurance product
recommended to a client.
3. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) - Asset Allocation and
Portfolio Diversification
Asset allocation is the distribution of investment dollars
among various asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and
cash, and the diversification of investments within each of
those asset classes. Essentially, this is where the adage
"Don't Put All Your Eggs In One Basket" applies.
Research has established that asset allocation is the
primary determinant of portfolio performance (see
www.kaloramawealth.com/mission.html). While
traditional asset management focuses on predicting
individual security price movements, MPT considers the
potential for enhancing returns at the portfolio level by
combining assets whose expected returns are not highly
correlated (don't move in the same direction), thereby
reducing portfolio risk or volatility. An investor should
invest in a broadly diversified portfolio to ensure
obtaining the returns from the top-performing asset classes.
This rotation of leadership in the portfolio from one asset
class to another enhances the long-term, risk-adjusted
performance of the portfolio.
4. Policy Investing - Your Investment Roadmap
Policy investing is derived from MPT and emphasizes
financial goal setting, risk reduction, and portfolio
diversification. Asset allocation is the key tool for
implementing investment policy in a portfolio. An investor's
financial goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, and funds
available for investment are documented in an Investment
Policy Statement (IPS), and then a strategic asset
allocation is developed to construct a diversified portfolio
which is allocated among many asset classes. An IPS also
provides a description of how the portfolio will be
constructed and managed, and helps to keep the investor
committed as markets rise and fall. It also helps to ensure
that the portfolio remains within the investor's stated risk
tolerance.
5. Total Portfolio Approach
Most investors have assets in various types of
accounts, including taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free.
Assets may also be in different types of retirement
accounts, such as Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) and
employer sponsored retirement plans (401 (k) or profit
sharing). By considering all assets as one portfolio, an
investor is ensured that they are all invested according to
the strategic asset allocation plan developed.
6. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
The EMH states that securities markets quickly and
accurately reflect all available information, thereby
setting "fair" prices for both buyer and seller. Competition
among market participants would make it virtually impossible
for any investor to consistently earn a return greater than
other investors. Conversely, inefficient markets would
enable an astute investor to exploit security prices which
do not accurately reflect all available information or do
not respond quickly to new information.
Research prepared by The Vanguard Group has shown that
some publicly traded securities markets are efficient, but
others are not (see
www.vanguardeurope.com/international/common/pdf/
Art_caseindexing.pdf). In markets which are efficient,
over long periods, passively-managed index funds which
replicate the performance of the market or an asset class
outperform actively-managed funds. Conversely, in markets
which are less efficient or inefficient, actively-managed
funds which invest by trying to uncover mis-priced
securities to buy and sell, in the long run outperform
passively-managed index funds. Accordingly, an investor
should use a combination of passively-managed index funds
and actively-managed funds to maximize after-tax returns.
7. Minimize Investment Costs - Loads, Expenses, and
Turnover
Portfolio returns are also affected by various costs,
including transaction fees and commissions (loads), as well
as operating expenses. Every dollar paid for these costs is
one less dollar you have working for you to achieve your
goals. The opportunity cost can be significant.
An investor should construct the portfolio by selecting
no-load mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds with low
operating expenses and portfolio turnover. The Vanguard
research also revealed that average mutual fund performance
is inversely related to fund operating expenses. That is,
the lower the operating expenses, the higher the average
annual total return. Portfolio turnover (how frequently
holdings are traded) also influences costs. Higher
transaction and management fees are a result of security
research, selection, and trading.
8. Minimize Taxes - Asset Location and Opportunity Cost
Most individual investors need to consider a third
dimension of investing beyond the two-dimensional risk and
return framework provided by MPT. The third dimension is
taxation. Every dollar paid in taxes is one less dollar you
have working for you. The opportunity cost of paying the tax
today must be weighed against future after-tax returns.
Asset location is the process of strategically locating
investments in taxable, tax-deferred, or tax-free accounts
to achieve the highest level of tax efficiency. Investments
are "located" in the appropriate account to defer taxes as
long as possible. Generally, tax-efficient investments
should be located in taxable accounts and tax-inefficient
investments in tax-advantaged accounts.
9. Portfolio Rebalancing Forces the "Buy Low, Sell High"
Paradigm
Finally, a system for periodically rebalancing the portfolio
to maintain the asset allocation strategy documented in an
Investment Policy Statement forces an investor to "buy low
and sell high." By selling over- weighted or outperforming
assets, an investor can use the funds to purchase
under-weighted or underperforming assets.
So now we know the "what," "how," and "why" of Portfolio
Spring-Cleaning. Whew, perhaps there is much more to this
investing thing than you realized!? Perhaps you really do
need to hire an advisor? So, how should you go about
selecting one? Our next newsletter will discuss the "who" of
portfolio management by suggesting criteria you should use
to select a financial or investment advisor.
If the investments in your portfolio are unable to answer
the question "Why am I here?", Kalorama Wealth Strategies
can help you review your portfolio and create a plan to
invest your assets in a manner providing professional
management, diversification, marketability, and liquidity.
For more information, please see our web site at
www.kaloramawealth.com.
Thank you for your business, trust, and referrals. Please
feel free to forward this email to friends and colleagues
who can benefit from information about investing and
financial planning. If I can be of any assistance to you or
anyone you know, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Sincerely,
David
_____________________________________
David M. Taube, CPA, CFA, CFP®, CRI
Founder and President
Kalorama Wealth Strategies
202-550-7262
_____________________________________
Investment advice offered through Medallion Advisory
Services, LLC*, Registered Investment Adviser. *Wholly owned
subsidiary of TMG Holding Company, Inc. T/A The Medallion
Group.
Kalorama Wealth Strategies and TMG Holding Company are not
affiliated companies.
Logo: Kalorama in Greek means "beautiful view." Through
our planning process, our goal is to provide you "A
Beautiful View To Your Financial Future."